Saturday, May 17, 2008

Greyfields vs Greenfields vs Wheat fields

I-20 East, Exit 154, turn right, and drive towards
Warrenton, GA. Within 2 miles, you will pass
a wheat field, a corn field, a soybean field, two
or three hay fields, and a cotton field. Welcome
to rural Georgia, where agriculture is the primary
industry, and teenagers still learn to drive a
tractor before the age of 15. Keep on going,
take three more right turns, and you'll end up
in the best little town in the world: Louisville.
(Say hi to my parents, if you see them!)

I-20 West towards Atlanta, exit 55A/B, turn left,
and you'll be at West End Mall, which is a very
different type of field: it is a greyfield, or retail/
shopping mall with a high vacancy rate and no
major department store to serve as an anchor.
Unless you count the Save-A-Lot shop, there
isn't much happening over there.

Continue along I-20 West, Exit 44, turn right,
and you're in a greenfield area where lots of
previously undeveloped farm land has been
rezoned and designated for future big box
commercial (Target, Walmart, etc) to be
built: Viola, greenfield sites!

What does all this mean to you? As a buyer,
it directly impacts your potential appreciation
in your new home. If you are buying property
beside a cow pasture, it may be a while before
you see a large push from developers to build
a Super Walmart or a Home Depot mega chain.

If your new house is 1/2 a mile from a healthy,
existing 4 lane highway, lined with big national
restaurants, you can anticipate a likely return
of 4% annual appreciation in a normal market.

Let's say your swank great-value 1950's ranch
home is behind a 'dead mall' that the City has
condemned, and there are knee-high weeds
growing in the cracked-pavement of the parking
lot, well, let's hope that you got a great deal on
the house since it may be a while before that
eyesore is demolished or re-themed. When it
is, get ready for lots of noise and debris, and
hopefully a new strip mall is built on the greyfield.

Greenfields can mean higher-than-expected
appreciation for nearby residences, so keep
an eye out for grading and flagging in your area!

The next road trip you take, I propose a new
game to play in the car: for every greenfield
site you pass, you get 5 points; name-that-
crop-in-the-farmer's-field and get a bonus of
10 points. Greyfields are minus 20 points,
and if you stop at Mrs. Fields (cookies) and
have a White Chocolate Macadamia Nut
cookie without buying one for me, half of
your points go to the other player. :)

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